An asymmetric bet is where the potential upside gain is greater than the loss to the downside. For example, with the current price per bitcoin at approximately USD$40,000, a bitcoin asymmetric bet would be something like, in the next five years, on the downside of the bet, the price of bitcoin might go USD$20,000 but the upside potential has some forecasts at USD$500,000. This might seem like an extraordinary price but if it keeps tracking the same in the next few years as it has done in the first decade of its existence then it could hit that price and beyond. In March of 2017, no one could see a USD$20K bitcoin price, a 20x return on its USD$1K price at the time and a parabolic rise that happened in less than 12 months. If the S2FX model plays out, it has a USD$288K price target, roughly a 7x return from current market levels. History doesn’t repeat but it rhymes, in July 2017 the price of bitcoin was just under USD$3K and then went approximately 7X to a blow-off top high of close to USD$20K.
Bitcoin whales are accumulating… Supply shock could lead to new all-time high, very soon!
Due to the scarce nature of bitcoin, supply shocks occur during the 4-year halving cycles. On-chain data is indicating we could be on the cusp of the next supply crisis which would be the likely catalyst for a parabolic advance to complete the bull market later in the year or early 2022. The on-chain data can identify particular buyers and sellers by wallet address analysis, and it is showing long term holders are accumulating the btc supply. This feverish buying for LT holders is done as so called “weak hands” leave the market, often selling at a loss after entering the market late through FOMO where they buy tops and sell bottoms. It’s when the experienced bitcoin market participants step up and accumulate this bitcoin with decades as an investment time horizon. Further analysis is also indicating the amount of btc that is moving off exchanges to cold storage is rapidly increasing, further adding pressure to the impending breakout move to the upside. With that said, a bitcoin asymmetric bet could be the best opportunity of a lifetime.